Julius Baer: La gran sorpresa de 2015 será. el petróleo

Según Burkhard Varnholt, en el año que despedimos “el espectacular colapso de los precios del petróleo fue una sorpresa, por su velocidad y magnitud. Y si este hecho va a ser beneficioso o, por el contrario, un lastre para el crecimiento mundial va a ser la gran sorpresa de 2015”.El abaratamiento del crudo debe actuar como “un inesperado viento de cola que impulsará a los mayores consumidores, que son obviamente los países más industrializados”. Eso sí, en 2015, un año en el que el mejor activo será “la renta variable, simple y llanamente”, no sólo gigantes como EEUU tirarán de la economía mundial.

El CIO de Julius Baer espera ver crecimientos abultados en emergentes, en concreto en países como China e India y regiones de África, que “sigue siendo el ganador silencioso de la globalización. La mayoría del continente seguirá mostrando las tasas de crecimiento más altas del mundo, aunque parte de unos niveles mucho menores, lo que explica que la evolución de África no importe tanto al mundo como debería, teniendo en cuenta sus impresionantes dinámicas”, asegura.

Burkhard Varnholt, CIO and Head Investment Solutions Group, Julius Baer

The surprises of 2014… and beyond

·                Geopolitics was surely full of them. Neither the conflict on the Crimea nor the saber-rattling in the South Sea were to be expected. But unfortunately, these tensions are unlikely to be the last. Geopolitics will continue to create both significant challenges and opportunities for issuers and investors of financial securities.

·                Surely the spectacular collapse of oil-prices was also a surprise by speed and magnitude.

·                Whether it will be a benefit or a drag on global growth will remain the surprise for 2015.

Regions that will be growth winners next year

·                Talking energy: clearly the biggest consumers will profit from an unexpected tailwind, those will obviously be the most industrialized countries.

·                However, in absolute growth projections, Asia will still provide most of the heavy lifting. China remains the world’s biggest economy (in purchasing power terms) and will continue to advance fast. India should do well, too and so should much of South East Asia. In South America, we see growth dynamics and scale of the economy, while further north, we expect both the US as well as Canada to do well, economically speaking. In Europe, there will be slim pickings but arguably not as awful as many fear. That’s courtesy to cheap oil and a bit of economic tailwind plus some good reforms in the southern periphery. Africa remains the silent winner of globalization. Most of the continent will continue to display the world’s highest growth rates, albeit from much lower levels, which is why Africa growth still doesn’t matter as much to the world as the impressive dynamics would suggest. For Russia and the Middle East, they risk being mired in a dangerous spiral of conflict and escalation.

Views on fixed income for 2015

The most important view is, that USD long yields will remain lower for longer. They may well remain depressed until 2020 as structural excess demand from pension funds and insurance funds as well as continued financial repression in the west weigh heavily on them. And frankly, there is pretty much the same argument for maintaining an identical view on European as well as Japanese yields. As long as most other big currencies are directly or indirectly pegged to these, this is essentially a global view.

The best asset for 2015

Plain and simple: equities. They offer the highest risk-premium and the best position for capital providers in today’s world.

Biggest unknowns/risks

In no particular order: Geopolitics. Epidemics and related scares. Monetary- and economic policy-experiments. Competitive currency devaluation. Hysteria and herding in financial markets combined with the media exacerbating such cycles.